Folks within my industry keep telling me the cider market is in decline. Really? What timeframe is this based on?
I can't help comparing this speak with Wall Street's rumors just before the Dot-Com Bubble or the Great Recession. Back then I had an office job, and I was making regular retirement contributions to a mutual fund, so needless to say, all the stock market anxiety was making me nervous too.
Well, you the history... pop!
I lost between 40% and 50% of my retirement investments, so it seemed. In retrospect, however, all the money I put those funds (even immediately before those crashes) is ten and five times higher today. So, what does that tell you about making predictions and the good of worrying?
I had begun planting apple trees in Wurtsboro around that time too, in 2007. I imagined a cider business to supplement my "real work" in architecture, but when the housing market collapsed in 2008, I went all-in the orchard game. Feeling the need to be professional about pomology, I attended an all-day apple conference in Saratoga Springs, NY. I will now relate the only two things I recall of that day:
The first, was a lecture given by a large-scale Hudson Valley apple grower, the kind of generational farmer that's been entrenched in the commodity market since the day he was born. He bemoaned the usual diseases and insects, but his speech was mainly about the financials of a typical apple operation. Factoring the price-per-acre -- including the spray bill, cost-of-sales, and workman’s comp, for example -- he was, in the end, very pessimistic about the sustainability of small-scale orcharding in the 21st century. By his standards, that meant less than 100 acres.
He was, however, a proponent of the “fruit-wall” orchards, claiming the new super-dwarf trees were likely to be the only money-positive option going forward. Even still, he was doubtful American farmers could compete against low-wage or subsidized workers elsewhere. His lecture concluded with this: “If the high-density orchard doesn’t save my farm, I’m not worried. I already have it subdivided on tax maps.”
Cheery.
The other thing I remember that day? I was my first face-to-face encounter with a licensed cider producer.
About ten years my senior, this guy produced the drink from his family's orchard 3 hours north of me, not far from the seminar, in fact. His bread-and-butter, he told me, was the U-pick operation but he took his cider lineup very seriously. Somehow, in a room full of more than 100 apple growers, the two cider makers found each other like we were both wearing propeller beanies on our heads.
At the time, my cider-producer application was rejected due to my inability to navigate the farm-winery forms (there was no such thing as a "Cidery" license back then.) I knew only two licensed farm-based cider producers, one in Massachusetts and the other New Hampshire (both of whom I wished to emulate stylistically), but since alcohol laws differ from state-to-state, I had no intention of bothering them with my application woes. At the apple conference, I finally had a chance to ask a New York producer how to get started selling "real" cider legally.
As it turns out, there were as many as six other NY State cider producers I could've called on at the time, but this was the DSL-era and information was relatively scarce. Plus, there was no Cider trade association, nor was the government even familiar with the drink (they thought it was "brewed" like beer and classified it accordingly.) It wasn't until 2010 that an agricultural non-profit advocated for the beverage that there was a network of producers-
Wait, where am I going with this?
Oh, yeah! I bring this up because I wanted to say: Of the first ten cider producers I met between 2007 and 2011 (all in NY or New England), only one has since gone out of business. And of the next ten I met, between 2012-2014, only two others have quit, albeit for personal reasons and not financial. That's an 85% survival rate, which seems pretty good to me.
So, there you have it, two competing memories from the apple conference addressing "sustainability" and longevity in the orchard world. And now, if you wanted to know if capital-c, Cider is capable of sustaining your professional aspirations, honestly, I don't know which narrative to heed -- one is a pessimistic outlook, the other is factual --- but I suspect it all comes down to expectations and the timeframe you're imagining.
How to Sustain a Sustainable Cider Business
I got my license in 2010, so I don't consider myself qualified to talk about longevity, or what is, and what isn’t, a "sustainable cider-business model." That's too short a span.
Sure, I’ve seen a lot of changes in that time, I’ve seen numerous trends come and go, but 14 or 15 years is a short career in the life of the average person. It's also a short span if you intend to plant "real apple trees", trees from seed, because it might take a decade of more to see fruit. Why, even Bud-9’s will outlive the business if it doesn't survive two decades! So, I won't speak as a veteran of the cider industry (which most people consider me), but I will speak to you as a word enthusiast. Why? Because it's always important to investigate key phrases, such as "sustainability," which has been thrown around willy-nilly in recent years. If nothing else, to be mindful of the meaning of something brings it closer to heart/ closer to integration.
But you already know the definition of sustainable.
Etymologically, it stems from a combination of “sus” (the precursor of sub, as in below) + “tain” (once meaning, to float) + “able” (suffix meaning, ability.) In other words, sustainable describes something’s ability to stay afloat (which, again, you already knew.)
But let's NOT overlook that sustainability considers both effectiveness and duration. It's not the same as “whatever works.” Yes, it needs to work, but it also needs to work in the future too. It's about longevity. The trouble is, no one knows the future; And here in lies the first mystery around "sustainable business."
Anyone can claim adding solar panels or recycling glass bottles is good for the environment (such actions are assumed environmentally sustainable given current information), but it’s a failing of the word to say we know even that with certainty! Acknowledging that we don’t know how things will go is essential to sustainability's definition, but more importantly, it's essential to our attitude if we, in fact, want to behave sustainably.
The other definition of sustainable, if not literal, evokes even more mystery! The way the word is used today suggests a holistic vision, meaning, if we were to create a "sustainable cider business" we'd have to look beyond cider, beyond agriculture, and even beyond business. It’s a holistic consideration (or, substitute whatever nonthreatening word you use) which aspires to bring together the multidimensional aspects of life: the environment, the economy, our culture, and probably a million other things I'm failing to acknowledge.
But to consider “all the aspects of life” is pretty hubris, is it not? I mean, how can anyone claim to be holistic with a straight face? Nonetheless, it's important to think this way (or to try to think this way) if we are to behave sustainably.
The hope is, if one considers behaving sustainably, it will trickle down and become integrated in our business too. And, hopefully, our business will be sustained.
That's a lot of uncertainty. The long and the short of it is, it's impossible to know if Cider will sustain you because it's impossible to know what is sustainable. No one knows the future. Beyond that, I'm unqualified to say anything, but if you’d like to hear me make a fool of myself, this is my advice:
Ignore everything an MBA grad would say. Embrace uncertainty with a light heart and simply acknowledge that you don't know what will happen. This isn't part of the Wharton/Shark Tank business formula, but you'll be massively advantaged if you have "other reasons" to be a cider maker. Follow that rabbit and do the best you can without worrying about it.
I'm not saying, "the future is unknowable so don't worry about the financials," but use the information (as much info as you can get your hands on) and don't assume it leads to an outcome. In other words, research things, consider the expertise of others, but attend to your own garden first (or orchard, or cider.) I believe this is the soul of our being, because if we only listened to information no one would ever do anything!
Embrace that fresh, fun, and liberating attitude in your work, and you'll be far less likely to grow tired. "Resolve always to be a beginner," as Rilke would say. (And if you think this is bad advice, consider Rilke's longevity compared to most people!)
P.S. I hope that doesn’t sound pessimistic because ultimately, I have a lot of faith in the way things go. This includes the cider industry. Anyone who knows wild apple trees and their constant ability to surprise, will develop a deep faith in the resourcefulness in all things. If you want to know what the experts say about sustainable apple farming, ask the right ones: the trees.