Industry people keep telling me the cider market is in decline. Really? What timeframe is this based on?
I can't help comparing their concerns with Wall Street's anxiety just before the Dot-Com Bubble popping, or the "Great Recession." At that time, I had an office job, and I was making regular retirement contributions to a mutual fund, so needless to say, all the rumors were making me nervous too. Well, you the history, pop!
I lost between 40% and 50% of my investments, but in retrospect, all the money I put those funds (even immediately before those crashes) is ten and five times higher today. So, what does that tell you about worrying?
I had begun planting apple trees around that time too. In 2007, I imagined a cider business to supplement my "real" work in architecture, but when the housing market collapsed in 2008, I went "all in" the orchard game. So, feeling the need to be professional about it, I attended an all-day apple conference in Saratoga Springs, NY. I don’t remember much of what was discussed there but I recall two things:
The first, was a lecture given by a large-scale Hudson Valley apple grower. He bemoaned the usual diseases and insects, but his speech was about the financials of a typical apple operation. Factoring the price-per-acre for new and existing farms -- including the spray bill, cost-of-sales, and workman’s comp, for example -- he was, in the end, pessimistic about the sustainability of orcharding with less than 200 acres.
He was, however, a proponent of the new “fruit-wall” orchards, claiming the super-dwarfs were likely to be the only money-positive option going forward. Even still, he was doubtful American farmers could compete against low-wage or subsidized workers elsewhere. His lecture concluded with this: “If the high-density orchard doesn’t save my farm, I’m not worried. I already have it subdivided on tax maps.”
Cheery.
The other thing I remember that day, it was my first face-to-face encounter with a licensed cider producer. About ten years my senior, he produced from his family's orchard 3 hours north of me, not far from the seminar, in fact.
His bread-and-butter, he told me, was the U-pick operation but he took his cider lineup very seriously. Somehow, in a room full of more than 100 apple growers, the two cider makers found each other like we were both wearing propeller beanies on our heads.
At the time, my cider-producer application was rejected due to my inability to navigate the farm-winery forms (there was no such thing as a "Cidery" license back then.) I had knowledge of only two licensed farm-based cider producers (both of whom I wished to emulate, one in Massachusetts and the other New Hampshire), but since alcohol laws differ from state-to-state, I had no intention of bothering them. Now at the conference, I had a chance to ask a New York producer how to get started selling "real" cider legally.
As it turns out, there were as many as six other NY State cider producers I could've called on, but this was the DSL-era and information was relatively scarce. Plus, there was no trade association for cider or government officials familiar with the drink (they thought it was "brewed" like beer.) It wasn't until an agricultural non-profit took-on the beverage a few years later that there was a network of producers, but now I forgot why I'm telling you this.
Oh, yeah! It's because I wanted to say in retrospect: Of the first ten cider producers I met between 2007 and 2011 (all were in NY or New England), only one has gone out of business. And of the next ten I met, between 2012-2014, only two others have quit, albeit for personal reasons and not financial. That's an 85% survival rate.
So, there you have it, two competing outlooks concerning longevity in the apple industry. If you wanted to know if Cider is capable of sustaining your professional aspirations, honestly, I don't know which narrative to heed, the pessimistic one or the factual one. I suspect it all comes down to expectations and the timeframe you're imagining.
How Sustain a Sustainable Cider Business
I got my license in 2010, so I don't consider myself qualified to talk about what is, and what isn’t, a sustainable cider-business model. That's too short a span. Sure, I’ve seen a lot change in that time, I’ve seen numerous trends come and go, but 14 or 15 years is a short career in the life of the average person. It's also a short span if you intend to plant "real trees", trees from seed, because it might take a decade of more to see fruit. Why, even Bud-9’s will outlive the business if it doesn't survive two decades!
So, I can't speak as a veteran of the cider industry, but I will speak of sustainability as a word enthusiast. It's always important to investigate key phrases, if nothing else, to be mindful of the meaning and bring it closer to heart/ closer to integration.
But you already know the definition of sustainable.
Etymologically, it stems from a combination of “sus” (the precursor of sub, as in below) + “tain” (once meaning, to float) + “able” (suffix meaning, ability.) In other words, sustainable describes something’s ability to stay afloat, which, again, you already knew.
What's important not to overlook, however, is that sustainability considers both effectiveness and duration. It's not the same as “whatever works.” It does needs to work, yes, but it also needs to work in the future too. It's about longevity. The trouble is, no one knows the future, and here in lies the first mystery around "sustainable business."
Anyone can claim adding solar panels or recycling glass bottles is good for the environment (such actions are assumed environmentally sustainable given the current information), but it’s a failing of the word to say we know even that with certainty. Acknowledging that we don’t know how it will go is essential to sustainability's definition, but more importantly, it's essential to our attitude if we, in fact, want to act sustainably.
The other definition of sustainable, if not literal, evokes even more mystery. The way it's used today suggests a holistic vision, meaning, if we were to create a sustainable cider business we'd need to look beyond cider, beyond agriculture, and even beyond business. It’s a holistic consideration (or substitute whatever nonthreatening word you like) which aspires to bring together the multidimensional aspects of life: the environment, the economy, our culture, and probably a million other things I'm failing to acknowledge.
But to consider “all the aspects of life” is pretty hubris, is it not? I mean, how can one claim to master holism with a straight face? Nonetheless, it's important to try to think this way if we are to behave sustainably. The hope is, if one considers this type of sustainability then it will trickle down to business too (and the business will, in turn, be sustained.)
Long story short, it's impossible to know if Cider will sustain you because it's impossible to know what is and what isn't sustainable. Beyond that, I'm unqualified to predict but I'll offer some advice if you’d like to hear me make a fool of myself.
It starts by ignoring everything an MBA grad would say. Embracing uncertainty and simply acknowledging that you don't know (no one knows) isn't part of the business formula these days but you'll be advantaged to have "other reasons" to be a cider maker. Follow that rabbit and do the best you can without worrying about it.
I'm not saying, "The future is unknowable so don't have a business!" but use information (as much as you can get your hands on) and don't assume an outcome. In other words, research things, consider the expertise of others, but attend to your own garden (or orchard, or cider.) I believe that if you embrace that fresh, fun, and liberating attitude in your work, you'll be far less likely to grow tired and fail professionally.
Resolve always to be a beginner, as Rilke would say, and consider his longevity in the context of poetry!
P.S. I hope that doesn’t sound pessimistic because ultimately, I have a lot of faith in the way things go. This includes the cider industry. Anyone who knows wild apple trees and their constant ability to surprise, will develop a deep faith in all things. If you want to know what the experts say, ask the right ones: The apple trees.
